Archive for the ‘Climate’ Category

Northern Guatemala – Climate and Maya Civilization

Sunday, March 12th, 2006

   Gregg, Brooks, and I crossed into Guatemala from Mexico by riding in a small boat across the Usumacinta River. Although this region is sparsely populated, I noticed an immediate change in the people across the border. The children, instead of asking me how much my bike was worth (as nearly every person in Chiapas asked), smiled, played with my bike seat, and tried to say ‘how are you’ in English. The police told me no one had been attacked on the road in three years, and I rode the dirt road until I found a small town where locals allowed me to camp. Gregg and Brooks continued by van, and we split ways.

   Thinly populated, northern Guatemala is mostly flat and is covered by thick rainforest except for places cleared for crops or cattle. Riding a day and a half, I arrived at the ruins of Tikal, a city that was once one of the largest and most important cities of the ancient Maya. The Mayan civilization thrived from a few centuries before Christ until around 900 AD, when the civilization collapsed, and nearly all cities across the peninsula were abandoned. Now the impressive stone pyramids and palaces are covered by jungle and tourists.

   The Tikal ruins sit near the large lake of Peten-Itza, and I stayed in a hotel overlooking this lake for $5 a night while nursing a small cold. Here I met with a group of researchers who are drilling into the lake’s bottom, attempting to determine the past climate of the region. By looking at the composition of layers of sediment on the lake’s bottom, the scientists can determine past rainfall patterns and temperature, as well as the type of vegetation that surrounded the lake.

    According to their research, around 900AD, when the Mayan civilization collapsed, a series of intense droughts struck the region, likely making it difficult for the Mayans to feed their large cities. The lake sediments also suggest major deforestation of the region, and it is possible that a combination of drought and land degradation led the Mayans to abandon their settlements. We cannot be sure of how the Mayan civilization collapsed, but it now seems that climate change helped end one of the greatest ancient civilizations of the new world.

Travel Summary – Mexico

Monday, March 6th, 2006

(Travel Summaries are sent out as an email if you are signed up for the email list.)

   Welcome to the second Ride for Climate update! Since last update, I have biked from the northwest corner of Mexico to its southeast corner, covering over 3,000 miles. I have stayed at 7 fire houses, stayed with 16 different families, and camped on many roadsides. The awareness-raising-campaign has proceeded well, and I have talked at 12 different schools, been in 4 different newspapers, and appeared on national television.

   It is sometimes difficult to believe everything that I have seen these past three months. I have a notebook full of names of people who have helped me out and who I have promised to send a card to when I reach Argentina. Mexico has proved to be a beautiful country to bike across (although there are lots of hills), and every day – from Baja California to Mexico City to the southern coastline – has provided exciting new adventures.

   All of these experiences are recorded within the journals of my website, and below is an index with links to all Mexico entries, as well as a few additional comments. There is a lot here, so feel free to read only what interests you.

Entries in Mexico:

BAJA CALIFORNIA:

  • 12/12 Crossing the border
  • 12/12 My message in Mexico and my first Mexican school
  • 12/21 Riding the one-car-a-day road
  • 12/26 Riding with two Mexican professors
  • 12/31 Discovering the firehouses
  • 1/3 Water problems and climate change
  • 1/9 Hitching a ride on a yacht and wind power
  • NORTHERN MEXICO – MAZATLAN TO MEXICO CITY

  • 1/10 Home schooled kids at the Mazatlan marina
  • None
  • 1/13 Stomach problems…
  • 1/19 Climbing in the mountains and dodging forest fires
  • 1/20 American School of Durango
  • 1/24 Tec de Monterrey
  • 1/26 Joining forces with other gringo cyclists
  • 2/1 5 School presentations in 5 days
  • 2/6 Millions of monarch butterflies and a few small farms
  • 2/10 Will we lose monarch butterflies because of climate change?
  • SOUTHERN MEXICO – MEXICO CITY TO THE BORDER

  • 2/15 Bicycling in Mexico City
  • 2/22 Riding to Oaxaca and playing soccer with the locals
  • 2/28 Climate change and small Mexican farms
  • 3/3 Fishermen along the Pacific and indigenous villages in the mountains
  • A ride to the border: ruins and bandits (not yet posted)
  •    I have also put together a short album of narrated videos providing a virtual tour of small Mexican towns.

    WHAT DOES CLIMATE CHANGE MEAN FOR MEXICO?
       I have posted about water issues in Baja. You can also read about how we may lose the monarch butterflies due to climate change, as well as entry on how Mexican farmers will likely suffer under climate change. There are plenty other possible effects that I have not written about, ranging from health-harming heat waves in Mexico City to flooded coast lines in places such as where I went fishing with shrimp fisherman.

       I talked about the monarch butterflies, saying that we may lose biodiversity as the climate changes. Indeed, some studies that I have recently looked at show that the forest types all across Mexico will have to change to another forest type to survive at the right climate. According to one paper I have read, 50% of the deciduous forests here in southern Mexico may be completely lost due to climate change. These massive shifts in ecosystems, combined with the fact that there are people everywhere, will undoubtedly cause extinctions.

    TAKE ACTION
       If you haven’t yet, consider signing the following two petitions.
       www.stopglobalwarming.org
       www.undoit.org
       Also, here is a great list of recommended ways to cut back your energy use.

    None

    CONTACTS?
       I will be traveling through Belize, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama. If you have contacts with schools, local researchers, or people who have an extra bed, please let me know! (My route has changed – I am now biking through Belize instead of central Guatemala so that I can visit the coral reefs).

    LEAVE A COMMENT
       You can leave a comment here!

       I am now one day from crossing into Guatemala, entering the third country of the trip! My next update will probably come in two months, when I reach Panama and prepare for the cross to South America.

    David

    Miles biked: 3,905
    Flat Tires: 4

    A Ride for the Climate is sponsored by:
    Tarptent
    Mike’s Bikes of Palo Alto
    Pearl IzumiChaco
    Clif Bar

    Climate Change and Mexican Farms

    Tuesday, February 28th, 2006

       As I have ridden through the center of Mexico over the past few weeks, I have stayed in many small villages. In these villages, almost every household has a plot of land that they use to grow corn or beans, and most families make their own tortillas. The mother of a family in Minita de Cedro remarked ‘no one buys tortillas here!’ as she showed me how she made tortillas. If there is extra corn, it is fed to the chickens (‘everyone has chickens here’ ‘do you own chickens?’), which are then also eaten or used for eggs.

       What does a changing climate mean for these farmers? The results from over a decade of crop modeling and estimates seem to agree: while the food production of the world as a whole may not change much, massive shifts in agriculture will result and the production of poorer, developing countries, which already have a warmer climate, will decline. In other words, climate change will have little or an even beneficial effect on the farms of the northern U.S. and Canada, but it will hurt these small farms in Mexico.

       Warmer temperatures in already warm regions generally decrease yields. A friend of mine at Stanford studied wheat production in northern Mexico, and he found that warmer years resulted in lower yields. And this appears to be the story of climate change and agriculture in the tropics — many places in the tropics are near their limit of heat tolerance, and a warmer climate will hurt crops. For instance, India recently experienced warmer than normal temperatures and also lower yields.

       On the flip side, plants use carbon dioxide to grow, and more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere may help some crops. This effect, however, is most likely to be strongest in northern latitudes, and not here, in Mexico. Also, most of the estimates of this CO2 effect (see graphs here ) are based on greenhouse experiments, and a number of field studies (such as the one I worked on at Jasper Ridge at Stanford ) suggest that the effects of higher CO2 on plants are less than expected. Also, the CO2 effect is going to be far less for corn than for other crops, and corn is the most important crop — both culturally and economically — here in Mexico.

       Global warming will likely result in big shifts in agriculture. For instance, the corn in the U.S. Midwest may be replaced by wheat, and Napa Valley may no longer be suitable for wine grapes. Switching from one crop type to another will take investment, and perhaps even genetic engineering to adapt crops to new climates. Rich northern countries will be able to make these investments, while developing nations will likely struggle.

       As I look at the agriculture on these hillsides in Mexico, where most of the knowledge is passed on from one generation to the next, I wonder how easy it will be to change the way these people grow their crops, or even the types of crops they grow. In Presa de Bravo, where I watched these two woman make tortillas (movie left — same movie as before), I asked how they had purchased the land to grow their corn. I was told it was owned by their ancestors, and passed down through the family.

       Finally, climate change may make weather more variable — meaning both more good years and more bad years, and fewer average years. If you are a subsistence farmer, you care just as much about consistent yields as you do about the average yield. In every town I stop in, I ask what they do if there is a bad year for corn. Francisco in La Mojada, who is going to sell that wheelbarrow full of corn stalks for $2 for animal feed (photo left), gave me the same answer that everyone else has given me. They have to buy food, and it is very hard. Many of the people move elsewhere when they can’t find work, and a huge percentage of the illegal immigrants in the U.S. are people from these small Mexican villages who were unable to make ends meet. (I asked in one small town how many people in the town were in the U.S., and I was told 10%.)

       Right now, there are 800 million people who do not get enough food every day (only a small number of these are in Mexico – most are in Africa or Asia). This a huge problem, and probably deserves its own continent-crossing-awareness-raising bike ride. Helping these people eat enough, though, is often a task of improving agricultural output in these poorer regions. Climate change will only make this more difficult.

    Mexico City and Bicycles

    Wednesday, February 15th, 2006

       Following a route suggested by a local cyclist, I biked into the valley where Mexico City, the world’s third largest metropolitan area, sits in a cloud of smog, people, and cars. Despite warnings of traffic and thieves, I stayed in the city over a week, enjoying the different colonial centers, parks, and people. Mexico city is huge, with both shacks and multimillionaire homes crawling up the sides of the valley. In my week in the city, I biked over 120 miles, stayed with three different people/families, managed to get in two major newspapers, visited a school (Logos middle school), and was interviewed by a local television station (which has subsequently flooded my inbox with emails from Mexicans excited about my trip).

       In comparison to Los Angeles, I felt safer biking in Mexico City as the cars are smaller, they travel slower, and there are far more small alternative routes. Entering the city during rush hour, I found I was the fastest vehicle on the road, happily following the makeshift ‘bike lane’ that appeared between the rows of cars stopped at a traffic light. It was a sweet type of revenge, and I enjoyed, perhaps too much, weaving in and around the multiple green buses and taxis. To be sure, it was exhausting. A map big enough to cover the city required a 200-page book, and I frequently stopped to extract it from my pannier in attempts to find alternate routes. The pollution stung my lungs and eyes the first day, but I seemed to adapt afterwards.

       Joining forces with the local bike activists, I rode Wednesday night with the Bicitekas, a group advocating expanded bike rights within the city. Starting at 9:30PM, a team of almost 100 cyclists took over two lanes of traffic and rode through the city until 1AM. Watch the two videos on the left to get a sense of the ride. The following day, I visited a sustainable-transportation organization where one of the cyclists I met works, and I watched a presentation on potential future bike lanes in the city.

       To be sure, some people do use bicycles in the city. I have a running survey going. When I pass a cyclist, I ask them why they ride, and why there aren’t more cyclists on the roads, and if they have been in an accident. Most say they ride because it is faster for short distances, and that others don’t ride because they are scared, don’t think of it, or are just plain lazy. Most also say they have gotten in some type of accident with a car. Other people, like one man biking and carrying a ladder, replied, ‘can’t you see I’m trying to work right now?’ and kept cycling.

       While biking around town, I did meet one man promoting a naked bike ride in June. I’m not sure how this will help the cause.

       Bicycles are not for everyone, but they are for more people than currently use them. We are supposed to get some form of exercise every day. What if we used this exercise for part of our daily errand running? Biking to town or walking to the store? Not only would we use far less gasoline, but we would be healthier, and we would actually have more time, as we would be combining exercise and commuting. Americans are far overweight, and Mexicans are following us. I ask you this: support bicycle lanes and other bike-friendly infrastructure in your town, even if you plan not to use it. (You can read a scientific paper showing how much better off we would be here).

       I also visited the National Institute of Ecology, where I talked to those working with the government to account for Mexico’s greenhouse gas emissions. Mexico, unlike the U.S., has signed the Kyoto Protocal, but does not yet have to reduce emissions because it is a poorer country. At the institute, I met with a woman who is in charge of categorizing the ‘co-benefits’ of reduced use of fossil fuels. In other words, there are many benefits other than a better climate from reducing our use of fossil fuels. The health benefits I listed above are one co-benefit. Another is the ability to improve the horrible air-quality in Mexico City. And the political benefits of not needing oil are also great (I’ll talk about that in Venezuela).

       I spent my last three days in the city as a tourist. Mexico City was built by the Spaniards on top of a seasonal lake and the ruins of the Aztec civilization. I visited the ruins of the former Aztec temple, I walked through the anthropology museum, and I visited the pyramids of Teotihuacan (photo on right). Now the descendents of these civilizations walk the streets here in Mexico City, mixed with the descendents of the Spanish conquerors. There is something strange about a massive city that has entirely covered both a natural lake and a former civilization. The reporter I stayed with the last three nights claimed that this gave the city a unique energy.

       I finally left Mexico City, departing on a road that cuts between two 18,000 ft volcanoes (named Popocatepetl and Iztacihuatl). Almost 500 years earlier, Hernan Cortez, the Spanish conquistador, traveled over this pass with a small army and invaded the Aztec capital. Now the pass is a nice place to bicycle.

    Monarchs, Deforestation, Poverty, and Climate Change

    Friday, February 10th, 2006

       The butterflies I visited last week congregate in the millions at the tops of mountains in the center of Mexico. They choose these places because they have the perfect conditions for surviving the winter — conditions that are now threatened.

       The butterflies that are wintering here are mostly hibernating. While the skies were full of butterflies, there were even more (believe it or not) hanging motionless on the trees. What they need is a cool dry climate to survive these winter months, before returning to northeastern North America in the spring. (Read more about their life cycle.)

       According to a recent study (read a less technical summary here), it is likely that in this region of Mexico, there will be more winter rain. Winter rain is currently extremely uncommon (like rain in the summer in California). It is cold at 11,000 feet, and moisture with freezing conditions kills the butterflies. In 2002, a January storm killed over 70% of the butterflies, and conditions bad enough to destroy all butterfly habitats may be prevalent by 2050.

       This study relies on predictions of future rainfall, which are not as reliable as predictions of future temperatures — the rain predictions may be wrong. If the butterflies have to move to a new place to find conditions where they can survive the winter, however, they may be in big trouble, as people are likely to be already living there.

       Indeed, the butterflies are threatened by deforestation as well, most of it illegal, as this region is, in theory, protected. On the ride up the mountains, I saw a number of electric saws turning trees into furniture.

       It is more complicated. The people living near the butterflies are poor. The trail entrance to the butterfly sanctuary was full of shops pedaling trinkets and young children begging for money. It was actually the least safe place I have felt yet on this trip, and I asked to camp inside the park instead of at the entrance where most people camp. Camped less than a kilometer from the butterflies, I heard a subwoofer down the hill beating out a baseline, suggesting that the area was not well protected. The next day, I was surprised how poorly maintained the trail to the butterflies was, as thousands of tourists trampled random trails down a steep mountain side.

       It is tough to see poverty next to natural wonders that need to be protected. I am sure that there is a win-win situation – one in which the people are paid more to protect the forests than they are paid to cut them down. It is hard to believe that the value of logging is higher than the value of seeing these butterflies. However, after witnessing the disorganization of the park, I worry about our ability to protect the place, and I also wonder what the future of the begging children is.

       And there is the challenge. We must conserve these forests, help these poor people, and reduce our carbon dioxide emissions if we want forests of monarch butterflies for our children (as well as better lives for the locals). The ecosystems of the world face these multiple challenges, and this is just one of the places like this I will be visiting.

       I’m in Mexico City now, enjoying biking among 20 million some people. You can see a sneak preview of shots from the city here.